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Posted by: Chris Debicki, expedition leader 

Thick fog rolled in on Thursday afternoon, halting our progress once we’d completed our CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth) studies in the Upernavik Icefjord. That made travel unsafe and we pulled into a small, protected cove for the night. 

The weather made it too risky to try to dodge the usual hazards of icebergs and sea ice. We’ve also discovered that charts in this region are missing critical information. Huge areas have not been sounded and many of the depth readings on our nautical charts are not accurate. This is a mountainous region of sharp cliffs and the sea bottom is similarly rugged. Shallow water appears without warning. 

After 24 hours of work, this break afforded Knut and I some time to seriously discuss the most recent ice reports. The reports do not look good. Melville Bay is not opening up in the way we had hoped. This year may turn out to be the “worst” ice year in a decade in this region. I put “worst” in quotations because it is obviously silly to attach a negative judgment to sea ice. This is the same ice cover that acts as one of the world’s most important cooling systems. That’s because sea ice, with its white surface, reflects much more of the sun’s radiation than does open water. 

The ice also protects migrating whales. Ninety percent ice cover is no obstacle to these marine mammals. What will happen to bowhead and narwhal migration patterns if the icescape continues to change so dramatically? What kind of industries will move in if these regions become accessible? What measures to protect this ecosystem will be in place before this happens? 

Even though there has been a pronounced decline in sea ice extent in this part of the Arctic over the last decade, we knew that climate modeling experts still predict great variability form year to year. This is turning out to be one of those years.  

Our experience with heavier than average sea ice –- at least for recent years — may also serve as a reminder that increased commercial activity in the Arctic must take into account these extreme shifts in ice conditions. That’s essential to lower the risk of accidents in an area without the infrastructure to respond.  

Fortunately, we planned for the possibility of insurmountable ice obstacles. We have plenty of work to do in this northwestern region of Greenland. Over the next few days, we are consulting with locals in the small communities between Upervanik and Melville Bay to learn more about ice conditions and the whale migrations that pass through.